Heavy machinery industry: obvious downward trend, imminent transformation and upgrading
heavy machinery industry: obvious downward trend, imminent transformation and upgrading
China Construction Machinery Information
"In 2015, the economic operation of the heavy machinery industry was difficult. The growth rate of the annual cumulative main business income fell significantly, and the annual growth rate was close to zero. The industry enterprises made efforts to cope with the challenges and tests of the increasing downward pressure on the economy and insufficient market demand, and the operation was generally flat. It is expected that the operation in 2016 will still show a downward trend, the growth rate of the main business income will be about -5% to -7%, the first negative growth in 14 years, and the total profit And then it goes down. " From May 18 to 20, the 7th member congress and Council of China Heavy Machinery Industry Association was held in Beijing railway building. At the meeting, Li Jing, the executive vice chairman, analyzed and predicted the development trend of the industry in the work report of the Sixth Council
heavy machinery industry: the downward trend is obvious, transformation and upgrading is imminent
the growth rate continues to decline significantly
he pointed out that in 2016, the favorable factors such as various policies and precise regulation issued by the state are gradually emerging, but the de capacity of steel and coal has increased, and the market demand has further narrowed, which has a great impact on enterprises that produce metallurgical mining machinery with a large proportion, Material handling machinery enterprises have also been affected; According to statistics, the main business income of the heavy machinery industry in 2015 was 1.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.61%, a decrease of 7.17 percentage points over the previous year, lower than the expectation of 5%~7% at the beginning of the year; The operating indicators (main business income) in 2015 are basically consistent with the indicators in the "12th Five Year" industrial plan. The profit margin of the whole industry is 6.25%, close to the level in 2013; Loss face 15.03%; Accounts receivable increased by 2.50% year-on-year; The investment in fixed assets reached 280.562 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.40% and a double-digit decline for four consecutive years; The output of mechanical products was 23.012 million tons, the same as that of the previous year
in foreign trade, the export volume reached US $17.857 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.41%, entering a negative growth; The import volume reached US $6.01 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.93%, returning to negative growth. The import and export surplus was US $11.85 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.52%, and the growth rate continued to decline
the scope of losses expanded and the industry reshuffle intensified.
in 2015, the economic operation of the heavy machinery industry mainly presented the following four characteristics:
first, the growth rate of main business income continued to decline significantly, and the benefits still maintained a slight increase. Since 2012, the heavy machinery industry has started to decline sharply from a high-speed growth of 20%~30% to 0.61% in 2015, with an annual decline of about 7 percentage points. From the perspective of economic benefit indicators, the industry has maintained a certain profit margin, and accounts receivable have also converged to a certain extent. Enterprises have made great efforts in overcoming difficulties, maintaining value-added and self-adjustment
second, we have developed a number of major technical equipment and upgraded new products. For example, Shanghai Zhenhua heavy industry has successfully developed the world's first complete set of fourth generation automated container unmanned loading and unloading terminal equipment; Dalian Huarui Heavy Industry Group Co., Ltd. has developed the world's first "feed cabin cable drive system" for the world's largest single aperture 500m radio telescope, a national key scientific research facility. Compared with the traditional horizontal ball mill, the 200~250 T/h vertical stirring mill developed by CITIC Heavy Industry has improved the energy-saving effect by 30%~50%, and has been sent to the copper mine of intelligent countries to achieve the double breakthrough of self-development and "going global"
in addition, the first prize of 2015 mechanical industry science and technology progress award includes five items: development of 6400 ton hydraulic duplex crane, development and application of large mining mill, integrated intelligent flatness measurement and control system for steel strip cold rolling mill, development and application of giant heavy-duty forging operator, and key technologies and industrialization of long-distance large capacity belt conveyor system in complex terrain of mines. "This fully demonstrates the strength of the industry in striving for the top and technological innovation."
third, the "going out" has been steadily promoted. A large number of enterprises, such as CITIC Heavy Industries, China National Heavy Machinery Corporation, Dalian heavy industries • crane, Shanghai Zhenhua heavy industries, North heavy industries, Taiyuan Heavy Industries, Zigong transport machinery, Jiangsu Tongrun, Zhejiang shuangniao, have steadily promoted complete sets of equipment projects and bulk product exports. However, there have also been some export products with lax quality control and a large number of on-site repairs, laying hidden dangers for consolidating the achievements of "going global". The "going out" of heavy machinery depends on quality, and the failure also depends on quality
fourth, the reshuffle of industrial enterprises has intensified. Among the seven major heavy machinery plants in the industry, four suffered losses, an increase of one over 2014. With the support of relevant parties, Sinomach group has restructured the assets of the double debt; In the Changyuan crane production cluster, a number of complete gantry crane enterprises stopped production or half stopped production, and there was no turnaround; Some former backbone enterprises were eliminated; There are also some enterprises that take the initiative to give up their old businesses and change careers across borders. Well known enterprises such as Liugong and XCMG have also made crushing and screening products in mining machinery by adjusting their product organizations
opening the second year of entrepreneurship, transformation and upgrading
when talking about the views on the economic operation situation of the heavy machinery industry in 2016, Li Jing pointed out that China has entered the critical stage of realizing a well-off society in an all-round way. The strategic plan of made in China 2025 proposed that China's manufacturing industry has entered the period of "from big to strong and the integration of industrialization and industrialization". The concept of "innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing" proposed by the central government runs through the 13th five year plan. The new normal has brought heavy machinery to a new stage of development
he said that after 66 years of efforts since the founding of the people's Republic of China, the production scale of China's heavy machinery industry has grown from a total output value of 300million yuan in 1949 but still below 50% of the boom and bust line and a main business income of 580million yuan to a total output value of 1.2 yuan in 2015. "Environmental protection, lightweight and energy conservation" has become a hot topic of discussion at present. The main business income is 1.23 trillion yuan; The average annual growth rate of total assets is 15.1%, and the average annual growth rate of main business income is 13.8%, realizing the "more and faster" of the industry. "The scale is large, but the utilization rate of total assets is only half of that in the early days of liberation. Some senior people in the industry have pointed out that the heavy machinery industry should strive to achieve 'good and provincial' in the future. Therefore, the '13th five year plan' is a turning point for the industry's second entrepreneurship, and it is also the first year of consolidating the foundation, independent innovation, improving quality and efficiency, transformation and upgrading under the new normal."
Li Jing pointed out that in 2016, the industry market was facing an increasing trend and the stock demand of traditional enterprises was shrinking. First, the state has initiated measures to reduce the production capacity of steel, coal and cement, explicitly proposing not to build new projects, so the incremental demand is limited to some projects that need to be added due to structural adjustment. Second, in the stock of these industries, the speed of updating production equipment has slowed down. Adverse factors such as accounts receivable and competitive price reduction in the heavy machinery industry are mainly concentrated in these industries
he also pointed out that the capacity of some heavy machinery products may be further increased. First, after the iron and steel industry resolved the excess capacity, the machinery industry is one of the main industries to undertake the enterprises and personnel transferred to other industries, and the heavy machinery industry, including manufacturing and maintenance services, bears the brunt. Second, due to the decline of market demand, some non mechanical and non mechanical enterprises are looking for a way out to survive and continue to expand the production capacity of heavy machinery products, resulting in an even worse business situation in the industry
in addition, the financial situation is deteriorating. The main reason is that it is more difficult to recover the accounts receivable. The equipment and funds ordered by the "zombie enterprises" and the projects whose production capacity has been resolved have become "zombie products" and headless debts. Last year, a large part of the industry's profits were generated by the sharp decline in the prices of raw materials such as steel. This year, there is little room for such profits. At the same time, measures should be taken to deal with the rise in the prices of raw materials instead of falling. There is too little market demand. Bidding without reserve price and buying equipment on credit have become the trump card of users. They are destroying the industry and stifling the investment in industry innovation
there is a favorable environment for the development of the industry
"this year also has a favorable environment for the development of the industry." Li Jing stressed that:
first, the industry reshuffle has expanded the business space for advantageous enterprises, and some demands are gradually converging to enterprises with brands, high-quality products and R & D capabilities
second, enterprises that have made rapid transformation to manufacturing + service industry, have the strength to buy software and hardware together, introduce financial cooperation capital, or successfully develop new business models have increased market turnover
thirdly, the effect of the precise regulation policy issued by the state last year is gradually emerging. Enterprises are gradually adapting to and making use of the positive factors brought about by the interest rate and reserve requirement reduction and tax and fee reduction
fourth, under the pressure of environmental protection, price and capacity reduction, our users are equally willing to pursue survival and increase stamina, and are equally urgent to update and transform equipment. Although the demand for the market is slowing down, it is not absent, especially for products that will bring energy-saving and emission reduction benefits to users, which leads to users' desire for technological transformation
fifthly, if we pay a little more attention to the old users such as steel, nonferrous metals, cement, coal and electric power, we may find that our products will have the opportunity to enter new service fields as long as they are slightly improved. For example, the breaking and grinding equipment has been improved to enter the field of solid waste treatment and artificial sand and stone production; Through improvement, heavy forging equipment has entered the field of solid waste treatment and artificial sand and stone production; Heavy forging equipment has entered the field of transportation vehicles, pipeline preparation, etc
sixth, the national "going global" strategy and the establishment of the Asian investment bank are improving the external export environment. Recently, there are many news that some enterprises have received large orders
for this reason, Li Jing suggested that: on the one hand, enterprises should formulate major indicators such as industrial output value and main business income this year, not pursue excessive growth rate, but ensure profits, and try not to expand the loss of loss making enterprises. Member enterprises will no longer accept orders that lose money and make efforts in "good". On the other hand, the impact of steel price change on the cost should be considered in the quotation; Consider the short-term and long-term negative impact of low prices on enterprises; Draw lessons from certain enterprises, and never use usury to run enterprises. The "zombie products" stored in the factory for a whole day will be disposed decisively to reduce the expenses of non contributing loan interest. Work hard on "saving"
in the end, he suggested that although the industry is still in the downward period of operation law, in the long run, enterprises should, in accordance with the established development plan, sort out the five development concepts of "innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing", focus on introducing new technologies to transform traditional processes and products, improve the soft power in research and design, process technology, management and operation, and improve the hard power in product performance and quality, Make the enterprise make progress while maintaining stability, and finally realize the industrial structure adjustment and enterprise transformation and upgrading